Climate change - WWF Arctic (2023)

The Arctic’s average temperature has already risen at a rate of almost three times the global average, warming faster than any other region on Earth, suffering from amplified climate crisis effects while also trying to cope with the impacts from a growing global rush for resources, new shipping routes, and opportunities.

Summer sea ice is disappearing

Summer Arctic sea ice extent is shrinking by 13% per decade and the sea ice cover continues to be younger and thinner. Over the last 30 years, the depth of snow on sea ice has declined by more than 33 per cent in the western Arctic. If we can hold the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, the Arctic may retain some summer sea ice—a critical component of its marine ecosystems. But if the increase is greater than 1.5°C, we will lose Arctic summer ice within decades.

Receding ice creates risks for marine species

The declines in sea ice thickness and extent, along with changes in the timing of ice melt, are putting animals that are particularly ice-dependent—such as narwhals, polar bears and walrus—at risk. By 2100, polar bears could face starvation and reproductive failure even in the far north of Canada.

We are already seeing the impacts of the Arctic’s rapidly changing climate on wildlife. Fish are changing their ranges, while southern Arctic species, such as orcas, are pushing further north.

Diminishing snow cover threatens Arctic wildlife

Most plants and animals in the Arctic tundra depend on favourable snow conditions to survive. For example, many require late-lying snow cover to overwinter. Large herbivores—like reindeer—can’t reach their food when hard ice layers replace soft snowpack, as happens during the freeze–thaw cycles (when rain falls on snow and freezes, creating an impenetrable layer of ice that prevents the animals from getting to their food), that are becoming more frequent.

The problem is that we don’t know exactly how the snow will change as the climate warms, or what the Arctic snow conditions will be like if we succeed in limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Depending on the rate of change, the snow could either buffer or speed up changes in Arctic biodiversity.

The Arctic is no longer an effective global air conditioner

The rapidly diminishing Arctic sea ice is accelerating warming for the entire Earth. Sea ice reflectivity helps regulate the amount of sunlight that enters the Arctic region—and in turn, the area’s temperatures. As more sea ice disappears, the underlying ocean surface is exposed. This much darker ocean surface absorbs sunlight instead of reflecting it, allowing much more heat to enter the Arctic system. It is a vicious circle: less sea ice means more open ocean, more heat absorption and more climate change, not just within the region but beyond.

Sea levels are rising

While Arctic glaciers and ice caps represent only 25 per cent of the world’s land ice area, meltwater from these sources accounts for 35 per cent of the current global sea-level rise. The Greenland Ice Sheet is the world’s second-largest repository of freshwater. As it melts into the ocean and raises sea levels, the effects will be felt around the world. Under a business-as-usual scenario, Greenland alone could lead to a sea level rise ofat least 14 centimetres—and as much as 33 centimetres—this century alone. By 2200, it could be a metre or more.

Shipping is ramping up

Shipping in the Arctic is on the rise as sea ice recedes and the pressure to access Arctic resources intensifies. More vessels mean increased risks to Arctic ecosystems and wildlife, from heavy fuel oil spills to air and underwater noise pollution and the break-up of the remaining ice. Consequences include food shortages and risks to people’s livelihoods, cultures and health, especially in Indigenous communities.

Wildfires are surging as the climate warms

Climate change has been identified as the major culprit behind the wildfires we are witnessing in the Arctic. The number and frequency of extreme forest and tundra wildfires, notably in Alaska and Siberia, are increasing as the Arctic warms, leading to evacuations, loss of economic activity, and negative health effects.

Wildfires are a negative feedback loop for climate change because they release greenhouse gases and burn through habitat. They threaten ecologically valuable habitats for species like caribou and salmon. Declines in these species, in turn, threaten food security, infrastructure, health and cultural identities for people living in the Arctic.

Permafrost is thawing

Permafrost covers 24 per cent of land masses in the northern hemisphere and is also found on the ocean floor. It consists of permanently frozen layers of ground, from the surface to depths of hundreds of metres.

Permafrost plays a key role in storing carbon. It keeps the ground solid, stopping erosion and supporting infrastructure. It is also vital for Arctic species like migrating reindeer, preventing them from sinking into wetlands, especially during their spring migrations.

But permafrost temperatures have increased to record levels in the past 30 years. As it thaws and degrades, the buildings, pipelines and airstrips that are built upon it can tilt and become unstable. Up to 50 per cent of Arctic infrastructure could be at risk of damage by 2050.

Coastlines are eroding

Coastlines in many parts of the Arctic have some of the highest rates of erosion on Earth. The combined impacts of long-term warming (higher water temperatures, longer ice-free seasons, continuing permafrost thaw) and extreme events (such as storm-driven waves and swell) are driving the increase.

Up to five metres of coastline are disappearing every year in some areas of Alaska. With little or no sea ice to buffer shorelines, storm surges are extending their reach several kilometres inland, flooding communities, killing wetlands and accelerating the thawing of permafrost. Along with damage to property and infrastructure, this is causing the irreversible loss of livelihoods and cultural heritage.

Arctic communities are experiencing food shortages and risks to livelihoods

Climate change is also having an impact on people and communities. Changes in sea ice, precipitation, snow cover, temperatures and tundra productivity are affecting the availability of traditional foods, such as whales, walrus, seabirds, seals, caribou and even berries. In some areas, tundra greening is changing the ranges of the wildlife species that are important to hunters. In many Arctic regions, alternatives to traditional, locally sourced foods are unaffordable.

Reindeer herders in Fennoscandia and Russia have experienced major losses in their herds due to extreme snowfall and rain-on-snow events (when rain falls on snow and freezes, creating an impenetrable layer of ice that prevents the animals from getting to their food).

Travel routes are no longer safe

Some traditional routes across the sea ice are no longer safe. This not only creates a hazard, but also restricts access to harvesting sites. For example, hunters in northwest Greenland report that the period when it’s possible to travel on sea ice by dogsled has decreased to three months from five months.

Losses and decreases in the thickness of sea, lake and river ice—and changes in permafrost conditions—are affecting or threatening ice roads, restricting access to and from remote communities.

Economic development is adding to climate pressures

The Arctic has been identified as a strategic region for obtaining metals, oil and gas, including clean energy materials and minerals and wind power. The growing political and economic interest in Arctic land- and seascapes is leading to more intensive industrial activities that present significant challenges to Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous communities.

The development of Arctic resources could help with some of the economic and social problems that many Arctic communities are facing. However, there is no guarantee that the people living in the Arctic will share any of the benefits.

What is the WWF Arctic Programme doing?

We want a net-zero, climate-resilient future in which greenhouse gas emissions are low and stable. We are taking active steps to help people and nature adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis. This will require a huge global effort, but we remain positive.

Studying the Last Ice Area

A WWF resilience project is investigating the area in the north of Greenland and Canada’s Arctic Islands where summer sea ice is projected to last the longest. Known as the “Last Ice Area,” this region could be critically important to ice-dependent species, such as polar bears, in the future. We are engaging with local people and governments to achieve conservation goals and manage the area in a way that meets their needs.

Implementing ArcNet – a vision, network, and tool for marine conservation

If we let it, nature can help us adapt and buffer us against the impacts of a warmer world. It can protect communities from extreme weather events, absorb and store carbon, and be a source of food and livelihoods. WWF has produced ArcNet, an ocean-spanning network of marine conservation areas in the Arctic that supports resilience for Arctic biodiversity and gives nature some elbow room to adapt to the inevitable changes.

ArcNet is a map that shows the vision for a network of priority areas that governments and communities need to conserve throughout the Arctic Ocean. ArcNet is also a concrete tool for marine planning and management. ArcNet considers a region’s marine ecosystems and how they function, then suggests the best way forward to support a healthy and biodiverse Arctic.

Advocating for the complete phase-out of fossil fuels

The WWF Arctic Programme advocates against new exploration, investments and the development of fossil fuel reserves in the Arctic, as well as the construction of associated infrastructure that would support or stimulate the opening of new extraction sites. We have opposed oil production in the Arctic overall along with the United States’ plan to open drilling in the Arctic Refuge.

Communicating about a warmer Arctic

The WWF Arctic Programme provides consolidated science-based reports, content and focused media tools. We tell compelling stories that transport audiences to Arctic communities and landscapes impacted by climate change. By sharing stories about the issues faced by the people and wildlife who call the Arctic home, we aim to show the world how important and urgent it is to halt the climate crisis immediately.

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